When it comes to international sporting events, there are few, if any, that can rival the impact and the popularity of the FIFA World Cup. Some would argue that the Olympic Games are the epitome of competition, but a good number of the events are somewhat obscure, and most countries and their fan bases don’t put very much emphasis on them.
Conversely, just about every World Cup match is appointment viewing, with fans living and dying with each pass, dribble and shot on goal—-one only needs to search “World Cup reaction videos” on YouTube to see this play out in real time.
The 22nd edition of the fabled tournament is set to kick off in Qatar on November 20, and for the first time ever, U.S. fans will have the chance to watch the Cup with widespread access to legal sports betting. The last edition took place in 2018, just before the market exploded across the country.
And anyone who thought that Americans don’t love their international football should think again: according to a new report from the American Gaming Association (AGA), a whopping 20.5 million adults in the U.S. plan to place at least one bet over the course of the tournament, for a total of over $1.5 billion.
FIFA data indicates that the 2018 World Cup in Russia fetched a global handle of $146 billion. At that time, just three states in the U.S.—Nevada, New Jersey and Delaware—had legalized sports wagering, and even those markets were primarily constrained to in-person betting. Now that dozens more markets have launched both retail and mobile wagering, bettors and bookmakers can expect those numbers to shoot through the roof.
Some international regulators have taken steps to get ahead of any potential negative effects the increased betting rates may cause. As of now, Australian, French and Dutch agencies have all issued warnings to TV providers to not bombard viewers with additional gambling ads.
In the U.S., however, it’s full speed ahead, and the AGA’s research is indicating that nearly three in 10 American viewers (of legal age) plan to wager at least once. The key, then, is to shepherd them toward legal markets and away from unregulated offshore sites, which can offer extremely enticing odds and lines during multi-stage events such as the World Cup.
“As the first World Cup with widespread availability of legal sports betting, this will certainly be the most bet-upon soccer event ever in the U.S.,” AGA Senior Vice President Casey Clark said in a statement. “With more than half of all American adults having access to legal betting options in their home market, legal sports betting will deepen American fan engagement in the most-watched sporting event in the world.”
Thankfully, 78 percent of the 2,200-plus respondents did indicate that they intend to place their bets legally.
In terms of strategy, a separate but similar study conducted by the sports betting data transparency platform BettorOff showed that just over half—51 percent—of U.S. World Cup bettors plan to focus their wagers on specific teams, whereas just 13 percent said that they would only put money on matches involving the American team.
With that in mind, the AGA is encouraging viewers to plan ahead and stick to pre-planned budget limits. After all, it’s a month-long journey, so it never hurts to pace oneself.
“Anyone getting in on the action should have a game plan to bet responsibly. That means setting a budget, keeping it fun, learning the odds and playing with legal, regulated operators,” said Clark .
Bookmakers have posted Brazil, Argentina and defending champion France as the top three favorites, with odds of 4/1, 5.5/1 and 6/1, respectively. England, Spain and Germany are the next three—the U.S. sits at 17th, nestled in between Mexico and Poland.
Frighteningly, nearly a quarter of AGA respondents indicated that they’d wager on the U.S. to win it all if given a $50 free bet. Perhaps by the time the Cup comes to North America in 2026 they’ll have learned from their mistakes.
