40 Million Macau Visitors by 2025?

In its new forecast for the world’s top gaming jurisdiction, the Macao Government Tourism Office estimates non-gaming revenue could reach MOP112 billion in 2025, and visitors could top 40 million per year.

Infrastructure challenges

A new study from the Macao Government Tourism Office says total visitor arrivals to the city could increase from 30.7 million in 2015 to 35 million per year in the near term, and reach 40 million by 2025. Revenues would grow accordingly, with non-gaming income estimated to reach MOP112 billion (US$14 billion) that same year.

Helena de Senna Fernandes, director of the Macau Government Tourism Office, said the goal of the Tourism Industry Development Master Plan—open for public review now through July 22—is to “establish Macau as a world center for tourism and leisure” in the next 15 years, according to the Macau Business Daily.

In 2015, Mainland Chinese tourists accounted for 66.5 percent of total visitors to Macau, followed by visitors from Hong Kong, with international markets comprising 9 percent of tourism revenue. In the next 10 years, Senna Fernandes said, “the number of international tourists may account for 14 to 15 percent.”

To make it happen, the plan calls for more international flights to Macau and other infrastructure improvements, including the completion of the Hong Kong-Zhukai-Macau Bridge. Senna Fernandes acknowledged that “over 90 percent of the passengers arriving at the Macau airport are (now) from the Mainland” and said regional airports will help to draw more international tourists to Macau.

Earlier this year, Senna Fernandes said the MGTO has four primary goals: to “promote smart tourism by maximizing our use of the internet and social media platforms for tourism promotion; deepen the planning of tourism development; develop electronic administration and enhance tourism service quality; and strengthen regional cooperation, actively participating in international organizations.”

The plan includes a focus on “MICE business, conferences, events and other high value visitors,” and aims to improve the visitor experience through better “service, quality and efficiency.”

Another potential problem, especially as the jurisdiction emphasizes mass-market visitors and attractions, is the lack of affordable accommodations. “Sixty percent of existing rooms (are) from five-star hotels,” Senna Fernandes said. Connectivity is also an issue, with the quality citywide wifi in need of improvement.

In addition, data from the 2015 Macao Tourism Carrying Capacity Study said the number of visitors per year should not exceed 33.7 million. The report was based upon data from 2014, and was conducted by the Institute for Tourism Studies.

José Wong Weng Chou, Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Hospitality and Tourism Management at the Macau University of Science and Technology, said the new report may be too “optimistic, because when the study was being conducted the economy was still growing, while currently it is slowing down.

“I believe the problem is not if it will be 40 million but if we will maintain the current 30 million visitors, if the number will stay stable,” Weng Chou told the Business Daily.

“It’s very good to have the bridge to Hong Kong and Zhuhai, but if visitors decide to go to other cities we cannot make them stay in Macau. We need to improve the competitiveness, but I believe the most important thing is to improve our infrastructure, wifi, roads and nature sights,” he said.