Analysts: No Casinos for Hainan

Casino industry veterans say the Beijing government is unlikely to sanction the development of casinos on the holiday island of Hainan. They do see sports lotteries in Hainan’s future, however.

Analysts: No Casinos for Hainan

Sanya ideal port for cruise ships

The island known as “China’s Hawaii” will probably not become a casino destination, say some industry veterans. But they told the South China Morning Post that international waters off the Hainan coast could see the launch of new kinds of sports lotteries.

In April, the central Chinese government announced it would allow horse racing and new types of sports lotteries on the island as part of plans to turn the province into the mainland’s biggest pilot free-trade port. Analysts posited that casino gaming on Hainan, which might divert gamblers away from Macau, would also limit capital outflow and ensure that gaming revenue stays home.

A party reform group headed by President Xi Jinping was reportedly considering legal casinos after his April visit, and stocks soared on the optimism that followed.

But bricks-and-mortar casinos are “against the overall ideology and the rules and laws of China,” said Su Guojing, founder of the China Lottery Industry Salon. “It’s almost impossible for Beijing to allow the building of physical casinos. This is a separate issue compared with its opening up of lotteries.”

Also, instead of focusing on horse racing, which could take a very long time to develop, attention should be paid to Beijing’s support for turning Sanya, the province’s core tourism offering, into an international home port for cruises, said Su.

“There is room for setting up sports-related lotteries that are different from the current categories China has, which mainly focus on soccer games, on the boats,” said Su. “Such as lotteries related to horse racing, beach sports and golf—sports that have ‘Hainan characteristics.’” These lotteries could also be launched on the island itself, he added.

While Beijing bans all forms of gambling, it officially allows two types of lotteries: one where players predict the outcomes of international soccer matches; and some horse racing, although betting is banned and the central government has not promoted the sport.

A line in the directive about “relaxing control on developing cruise tourism” received little attention, which could suggest that some gaming operations that face restrictions on land could be allowed on boats.

Sanya attracts the most tourists in Hainan province. It recorded 18 million visitor arrivals in 2017, according to online travel booking agency Ctrip. The city currently has about 14 cruise routes travelling to countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam, while it is also a stopping point for major cruise operators, which could provide a good foundation for the city to become an international cruise destination.

Su also pointed out that it would make no sense for Hainan to have casinos, as this would pit it against Macau and Hong Kong. “Why would Beijing want to hurt Macau that way? Both places are its own territories,” he said.

Lawrence Ho, the chairman and chief executive of Melco Resorts, one of Macau’s six major casino operators, echoed Su’s views.

“I don’t think there will be a land-based casino industry set up in Hainan, at least not in the foreseeable future,” said the 42-year-old billionaire. “President Xi Jinping talked more about developing lotteries. There was nothing mentioned about betting.”

Sophie Lin, an analyst from rating agency Standard & Poor, also holds a similar view. She said: “I think it’s unlikely for China to allow casino operations outside Macau, at least for the next five years.”

Meanwhile, according to Asia Gaming Brief, Mainland China sports lottery provider 500.com has inked an agreement with the Hunan Provincial Bureau to develop physical sales channels for its lotteries.

The deal involves a subsidiary an affiliate entity of 500.com, Shenzhen E-Sun Sky Network Technology Co., Ltd, to help enhance the convenience of sports lottery ticket purchases, enlarge customer base and optimize user experience for lottery purchasers for the province through the development of physical sales channels.

The operation period will last for three years from the date of the agreement, AGB reported.