The recent Covid-19 outbreak in Beijing spells more bad news for Macau’s struggling casino industry as it’s expected to delay an anxiously awaited loosening of restrictions on travel from mainland China.
A trio of gaming analysts with brokerage Sanford Bernstein said they’re “skeptical” the central government will fulfill the industry’s hopes for a restoration of individual travel visas for residents of dozens of mainland cities by July.
The visas, which are issued to outbound travelers under what is known as the Individual Visit Scheme, have been a significant contributor to annual gaming revenues in Macau since the program was launched in 2003.
The IVS was halted back in January, as were visas for group travel, in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
Although the borders between Macau and China and Macau and Hong Kong are nominally open, restrictions such as a mandatory 14-day quarantine imposed by the neighboring mainland city of Zhuhai and a two-way mandatory 14-day quarantine between Macau and Hong Kong have been devastating for visitation.
Official figures show arrivals to Macau plunged by 99.5 percent year on year in May to a mere 16,133, although it was an improvement over April’s record low of 11,041. Year to date through May, arrivals are down 81 percent.
Gaming revenue has plummeted correspondingly and is down more than 75 percent year on year through May.
The Bernstein analysts said that with no word on when IVS travel will resume, June gaming revenue is likely to follow April’s and May’s mid-90s declines, “and if border restrictions stay in place for all of July, a similar outcome in that month is most likely.”
In the meantime, the Macau government has responded to the Beijing outbreak by extending its quarantine to all visitors who have been in the capital in the two weeks prior to arriving.
