It may have seemed a bit premature following the death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej of Thailand, but some gaming analysts and journalists immediately speculated on the impact of the ongoing discussion of legalization of casinos in the nation. King Bhumibol died at 88, and had been the world’s longest serving monarch, surpassing even Britain’s Queen Elizabeth.
While Thai royalty is nominally a figurehead, many believe the prosperity of Thailand is directly attributable to the stability of the king. Thailand has lurched from democracy to military rule over the past 50 years, and currently is operating under the control of the military. The most recent coup occurred in 2014 when the military deposed the elected government of Yingluck Shinawatra, the sister of Thaksin Shinawatra, who was also removed by the military in 2006 and fled the country.
Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn is said to be the king’s successor but has asked his coronation be delayed so he can join the nation in a yearlong period of mourning. While Thailand observers speculate that Maha isn’t as popular as his father that is unclear since it is illegal to comment upon or criticize the monarchy, punishable by jail time.
As for gaming, Union Gaming’s Grant Govertson speculated that Thai gamblers would cut back on their visits to the surrounding countries that have legal casinos, Laos and Cambodia, for about a month, but then things will return to normal. He doesn’t believe the king’s death will have any impact on the Phnom Penh casinos run by NagaCorp.
He does believe that there is now an opportunity for pro-gaming forces in Thailand to initiate discussions again about legalization.
“Thailand, in our view, represents what in all likelihood would be the most interesting gaming expansion opportunity in Southeast Asia—much more so than Vietnam,” wrote Govertson in a note to investors. “This is a function of not only Thailand’s economy but its advanced tourism infrastructure and given that it is a preferred global tourism destination. We expect a fairly long transition period (potentially more than a year) for the monarchy and expect the current military rule to remain in place until late 2017 at the earliest before new elections are held. With that in mind, we would look for 2018 to be the first practicable year that gaming expansion could be discussed.”
Muhammad Cohen, writing in Forbes, says the tourism sector in Thailand is “ambivalent” about casinos because a record number of tourists—almost 30 million—visited Thailand last year and that number is up 12 percent so far this year. Visitors to Thailand spend more than $40 billion last year, accounting for 10 percent of Thailand’s GNP.
Pro-gaming forces are allies of the disgraced former prime minister Thaskin, making it difficult to line up other supporters not in that camp. Prior to the coup, Cohen reported that Thaskin’s administration planned to hold a national referendum on gaming. So, says Cohen, “Casinos won’t be the first topic on the agenda if Thailand can repair its political dysfunction, but until there’s a working political dialogue, casinos will never get a hearing.”
