It’s not for me to handicap bidding for the New York City region’s three casino licenses, especially as I’m not politically plugged in there.
However, speculation is always fun, so here’s a thought, or at least a what-if:
The accepted belief is that two of the three licenses will go to existing racinos—MGM Resorts’ Empire City in Yonkers and Genting’s Resorts World in Queens.
That means all of the other bidders are competing for just one license, leaving uncertainty for all and really long odds for most.
But what if state authorities decide to truly open the bidding by not just rubber-stamping MGM and Genting?
This will be, after all is said and done, a political decision as well as an economic development one. And politicians love to do favors for as many people as possible, most especially for their constituents and supporters.
If so motivated, it might open the possibility that Genting could come up short. A typically political view of fair play is to say that they have theirs—which is to say, Genting has its full-fledged casino in the Catskills and would retain its lucrative slots casino at Resorts World, so why not spread the wealth by awarding two licenses to new entrants?
That would double the number of people to be made happy.
There could be other reasons that Genting, as opposed to MGM, would be the most likely incumbent to be left out if that becomes the decision. Its Catskill Mountains resort is underperforming expectations, which is disappointing given the decades-long history of efforts to revitalize the once tourist-busy region through authorizing casinos. Nor has Genting enjoyed great success in its one true American mega-resort, Resorts World Las Vegas. Snazzy multibillion-dollar proposals by successful U.S. mega-resort operators like Wynn, Caesars, Las Vegas Sands and Hard Rock might more credibly promise big economic and tax revenue returns.
Finally, Genting, while it enjoys local support, is the subsidiary of a foreign company, not a New York constituent with the political pull of some of the other entrants.
So, if two fresh licenses are awarded, who gets them? There are 11 bidders, so lots of possibilities. If you believe press reports and talking heads, hedge fund king Steve Cohen has the early edge. The New York Mets owner proposes an $8 billion entertainment and park complex next to CitiField where the Mets play. His casino partner, Hard Rock, is clearly first-class.
Other proposals with big-hitter local ties include Wynn Resorts, whose casino and 1,750-room hotel would be at the base of an 80-story tower in Related Company’s $12 billion project at Manhattan’s riverfront Hudson Yards. Caesars also has a big-hitter partner in SL Green. They propose a casino in Times Square; and Las Vegas Sands proposes a $4 billion project on Long Island.
The Caesars project has received some opposition, perhaps from businesses that see it more as a competitor than a business magnet for Times Square. Hofstra University and some other local interests oppose Las Vegas Sands. The other proposals have received less publicity, perhaps suggesting they are dark horses rather than front runners.
The Hudson Yards project might have the political benefit of less local opposition as it is located on a somewhat separate and already approved redevelopment site.
The good news for whoever is selected is that their projects should be gold mines.
