The .4 billion MGM National Harbor casino complex, which opened December 8 on the Potomac River near Washington, D.C., offers a model of what could be built in Atlanta to create thousands of jobs, boost tourism and help fund the HOPE scholarship program, MGM Resorts International Chief Executive Officer Jim Murren told influential Atlanta business leaders in October—that is, if Georgia legalizes Las Vegas-style gambling.
No legislation has been filed for the next legislative session that starts in January. But Georgia lawmakers and casino backers expect a two-part proposal, including a constitutional amendment requiring the approval of Georgia voters to allow four casinos across the state–one of them a $1 billion casino resort in Atlanta. The measure also may require a separate local vote allowing residents to decide if they want a casino in their community. A super-majority of both houses would be needed to place the item on the 2018 ballot.
MGM Resorts International first scouted potential sites in downtown Atlanta in July 2015. Last winter legislators considered a constitutional amendment that would have allowed up to six casinos. Later the measure was changed to allow up to four, but it didn’t go anywhere. Opposition by Governor Nathan Deal and House Speaker David Ralston helped blunt casino legislation last year, and a spokeswoman for the governor recently said his position has not changed.
Lawmakers feel the issue could make more progress in the upcoming session. State Rep. Allen Peake said, “Does it have legs? Yes. There’s no doubt it’s going to be hotly debated in the next session and probably through the governor’s race in 2018.”
State Senator Vincent Fort said he will strongly oppose casinos. He said casinos are “a reverse Robin Hood,” and stated casino backers will have to “buy the process” to win a super-majority in both legislative chambers.
One projection of last year’s legislation estimated six casinos with a 12 percent tax on gambling revenue would generate more than $280 million per year for HOPE scholarships. However, a study commissioned by Central Atlanta Progress stated although casinos could help generate hundreds of millions in tax revenue, it concluded most of the visitors would be locals and that the new casino could cannibalize spending that might have gone to nearby restaurants and other entertainment venues, and as a result, cause other state and local tax collections to decline.
The report also estimated that Georgians spend about $570 million annually in casinos out of state–far more than previous studies indicated. “We’d be foolish not to look at it,” said state Senator Brandon Beach. He added casinos would bring jobs and investment and be a boost to HOPE that will help “keep our best and brightest here.”
Another consideration in favor of casinos is a recent forecast that Georgia Lottery revenue growth by 2027-2028 is unlikely to keep up with the demand for HOPE scholarships amid rising tuition costs. An Atlanta Journal Constitution poll last year indicated 62 percent of voters would approve of casinos if the tax revenue were tied to HOPE.
But a backlash by religious conservatives is possible. Mike Griffin, public affairs representative for the Georgia Baptist Mission Board, said, “We use children as the reason to do this but children are the ones who are in danger the most from the legalization of social vices. People need to understand that not all that glitters is gold.”
He cautioned members of the Republican-controlled legislature that most are elected in the primaries, and most primary voters are religious conservatives. “We don’t need to be putting money over morality,” he said.
