In a new report on the looming Japanese gaming industry, analysts at Global Market Advisors Gaming say it’s unrealistic to expect that any operator could plan, develop and open an integrated resort in the country before 2026.
The city and prefecture of Osaka have been particularly adamant that they want to first win an IR license and then open an IR on Yumeshima Island in 2024, before they play host to the 2025 World Expo.
No IR could open that quickly “because of the challenges that would face any structure of this magnitude being built anywhere in Japan,” said the GMA report. “Even under the most aggressive timeline, it would have been a challenge to get an IR open on Yumeshima by 2025, should they be awarded one of the three coveted licenses. This is because of the challenges that would face any structure of this magnitude being built anywhere in Japan. The country’s environmental process alone will likely take 20-24 months to complete.”
Major integrated resorts “typically require 34-40 months to build,” the report continued. “In total, the full development timeline would likely range from 54 months to over 64 months. As of the writing of this brief, there are 67 months until the start of 2025. As such, licenses would have to be awarded within the next 12 months to have a chance at opening a complete integrated resort that is ready to go by 2025.”
Some ambitious plans have been quenched due to delays by the national government in completing the regulatory framework, but GMA thinks the Casino Management Board will be established before the end of the year and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism will issue its comprehensive guidelines in early 2020.
Moving forward, GMA predicts that interested local governments will select their operating partners in early 2021; three candidate sites will be licensed in mid-2022; and actual construction can begin in 2023, with the first resorts opening in 2026.
According to Inside Asian Gaming, seven operators answered Osaka’s Request for Concept, a precursor to pursuing an IR in the region. The operators were identified as MGM Resorts International, which recently announced a partnership with Orix; Wynn Resorts; Genting Singapore; Melco Resorts & Entertainment; the Las Vegas Sands Corp., and two other groups that have asked that their names be withheld. Some reports indicate the mystery operators are Macau-based Galaxy Entertainment Group and U.S.-based Caesars Entertainment, both of which exhibited at last month’s Japan IR Expo at Intex Osaka.
Osaka is the most frequently mentioned potential IR location, but an early favorite, Tokyo, may be back in the running. In January, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike said she’s not interested in considering an IR bid for the former Tsukiji Fish Market site. But according to Asia Gaming Brief, some observers believe that a bid is “quietly under consideration, either at Tsukiji or on Odaiba.”
Last week, Akahata, the newspaper of the Japan Communist Party, revealed that the Bureau of Port and Harbor of the Tokyo metropolitan government had commissioned two “secret studies” to determine the best sites for an IR. One study, conducted by the Mitsubishi Research Institute, deemed the Aomi district of Odaiba, close to Tokyo Big Sight, to be the most suitable location, with the Tsukiji Fish Market also found to be a plausible candidate.
As the process advances, according to IAG, the Kyushu Governor’s Association has passed a resolution confirming that Nagasaki will lead all efforts to develop an integrated resort on that island, with support from all nine prefectures within the Greater Kyushu Region.
The group includes the regional governors as well as the governors of Okinawa and Yamaguchi. “If the Kyushu-Nagasaki IR proceeds, we believe it will offer a tremendous boost and further support to our tourism and economic efforts,” said Nagasaki Prefecture Governor Hōdō Nakamura. “We aim to have the Kyushu-Nagasaki IR supported by our ‘All-Kyushu’ campaign, which will be led together by all of the prefectures within Greater Kyushu.”
Nagasaki Prefecture will host its first IR event in Sasebo on June 27.
