Month-on-month figures improve
Gaming analysts looking at Macau say the Golden Week holiday proved a brief respite for the struggling jurisdiction, but the spike in GGR did not last.
“Our channel sources indicate that VIP liquidity remains weak following a brief rebound during Golden Week while mass play declined after strong visitation and play during Golden Week,” said a note from Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd., reported in GGRAsia.
For the week ending October 18, average daily revenue was “a disappointing MOP486 million (US$60.8 million), the lowest level seen since June 2010” and more than 40 percent below the same period in 2014, wrote analysts Vitaly Umansky, Simon Zhang and Bo Wen.
Based on those numbers, analysts at Daiwa Securities Inc. forecast a 32 percent year-on-year decline for October, though the city could get a lift from the opening of Melco Crown’s Hollywood-themed Studio City resort October 27. “Our on-the-ground research reveals continuous weakness in both betting volumes and hotel bookings post Golden Week,” wrote the Daiwa team.
Cameron McKnight of Wells Fargo Securities was unimpressed. “We project -26 percent to -29 percent year-on-year for the month of October. This assumes roughly MOP570 million to MOP580 million ADR for the rest of the month.” However, he added this would mean month-on-month growth of 16 percent, “slightly lower than normal historical October seasonality” of a 20 percent month-on-month average improvement.
