Major League Baseball (MLB) made several rule changes and tweaks before the 2023 season with the aim of speeding up the game and increasing scoring. We recently passed the midpoint of the season and it is interesting how the changes have influenced the game and betting on it.
Baseball rule changes can have a significant impact on betting strategies. For example, a change in the strike zone can affect the likelihood of a pitcher throwing a strike or a batter swinging at a pitch. This, in turn, can influence the over/under betting market or the outcome of a game.
It is crucial for bettors to stay updated on these rule changes and analyze their potential impact on the game. By understanding how these changes can alter the dynamics of a match, bettors can make more informed decisions and increase their chances of winning.
There were three major rules changes before the 2023 season that sportsbooks feared may have an impact on betting lines.
The first was the pitch clock. Pitchers are required to start their pitching motions within 15 seconds with nobody on base and 20 seconds with men on base. The batter must be ready and looking at the pitcher with eight seconds on the clock.
The second was the ban on the infield shift. Now two infielders must be on each side of second base and all four infielders must be on the dirt when the pitcher is on the pitching rubber.
The third rule change was the size of the bases being increased. They went from 15 square inches to 18 square inches.
Josh Inglis of Covers.com took data from the first half of the season and compared it to every midpoint from 2016, with the exception of 2020, which was affected by COVID-19.
There wasn’t a significant increase in runs and scoring. Those statistical categories mostly fell in line with the other years. Home runs were down compared to this time last year, but RBI were up.
The one area that did see a large increase was stolen bases. The jump in stolen bases was up 20 percent compared to 2022. The success rate is currently close to 80 percent. In the history of the game, the success rate has never been above 76 percent for a season.
“If there’s one stat that’s been truly boosted by the implementation of the new rules, it’s the stolen base,” Inglis wrote. “Many analysts predicted this heading into 2023 and during Spring Training as swipes were on the rise.
With bigger bases making the basepaths shorter combined with the disengagement rules heavily benefiting the base runners, spring runners attempted 50 percent more stolen bases this year than in 2022. Those additional swipes kept coming when the regular season got underway.”
That has led to bettors taking advantage of stolen base betting markets. Tickets for individual players to steal a base have paid off well for bettors. One example was Los Angeles Angels phenom Shohei Ohtani, who recently paid off at +1000 to steal a base.
Bettors who adapt their strategies to capitalize on the rule changes can find valuable opportunities. As the season progresses, it is crucial to stay updated on team tendencies, player performances, and game scenarios to maximize betting success.
