UK bookmaker William Hill says a majority of high-rollers are betting Brit voters will elect to remain in the European Union in a referendum to be held this week.
According to SBC News, last week the majority of bookmakers shortened their odds on a “leave” vote to 2/1, for the shortest price on the outcome since the market opened. Those in favor of that outcome say the slashed odds “represent the mood of the general UK public.” But William Hill says “big money” customers are voting on the opposite result. One Leeds-based punter bet £60,000 (US$85,000) on a pro-EU result. Graham Sharpe William Hill Spokesman commented “At the odds of 2/5 the gentleman, in his mid- to late twenties, stands to make a potential profit of £24,000 (US$34,000).”
Another client from Southwest London, who had already staked £20,000, doubled that stake, Sharpe said. “He has now staked a total of £40,000 and stands to get back £54,120. It seems the high-rollers fancy ‘remain,’ the smaller money clients are overwhelmingly backing ‘leave.’“
As of last week, William Hill reported a 73 percent chance that the “remain” camp will prevail, versus 31 percent for the leave team.
That does not jibe with predictions from 10 independent polls, which say voters are much more evenly divided, with 45 percent who want to leave, versus 43 percent who want to stay, and 12 percent undecided.
“Our political binaries have shown a high success rate in predicting the correct outcome in previous elections and referendums,” Matt Brief, head of dealing at IG Group, told the Associated Press. “The pattern we are seeing is similar to the Scottish referendum when markets remained solidly for a no victory throughout the campaign.” Scotland’s 2014 independence referendum 2014 was defeated, despite polls that indicated the contrary.
“There is no version of ‘don’t know’ with the bookies,” said Bill O’Neill, head of UBS Wealth Management UK. “It’s a clear either/or choice.”
