Prof: Bookies consistently beat polls
The U.K. bookmaking industry is a pretty reliable predictor when it comes to calling election odds. But on May 7, they came up with a losing hand. In a major upset predicted by bettors, Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservative Party won a parliamentary majority, edging the Labor Minority. That made for a rare loss by bookmakers William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes, according to SBC News. The bookies also said the election would be the closest in recent history.
According to the London Daily Mail, the bookmakers paid out millions to punters who correctly predicated a Conservative majority. Pollsters also got it wrong, predicting a hung parliament with the Tories neck-and-neck with the Labor party.
As punters count their winnings, the British Polling Council has announced it will launching an investigation of the polls, and why they “got it so wrong,” according to the Mail.
Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School said bookmakers and betting markets have consistently been more accurate on major political events over the past 15 years, including U.S. presidential elections, the Israeli election last March, and the Scottish referendum on independence from the crown. And in general, bookies do better than pollsters, Williams claims said.
“The power of the betting markets to assimilate the collective knowledge and wisdom of those willing to back their judgment with money has only increased in recent years as the volume of money wagered has risen dramatically,” he said.
Meanwhile, Irish betting operator Paddy Power pulled a “controversial stunt” on election eve, according to CalvinAyre.com. The bookmaker parked a truck with the message, “You’re getting sacked in the morning” outside of the Houses of Parliament, hours before the polls opened.
