Macau’s casino sector reported a rebound in October 2025 gross gaming revenue, rising 15.9% year-on-year to MOP24.09 billion (about US$3.01 billion), despite Golden Week setbacks linked to severe weather and competing regional events.
The figure exceeded Deutsche Bank’s consensus forecast of a 9.9% increase and reached 91% of the pre-pandemic October 2019 level. Monthly growth from September stood at 31.7%, highlighting a continuing recovery in the region’s gaming market, reported by Macau Business.
Key Takeaways:
- Macau’s October casino gross gaming revenue increased by 15.9% year-on-year.
- Golden Week was impacted by typhoon and regional events, causing short-term setbacks.
- Industry experts remain optimistic about ongoing sector growth and future projections.
Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Pizzella noted a sequential per-day revenue increase of 27.4%, which is 1,130 basis points above the historical average for this period. While October’s GGR remained 8.9% below 2019 levels, this gap has narrowed from a 17.2% shortfall in September, indicating steady improvement.
Golden Week Setbacks Slow Momentum but Recovery Persists
The National Day holiday period marked one of the key Golden Week setbacks, as performance was weaker than expected in the second half due to adverse weather and competing events. Typhoon Matmo, which caused travel disruptions and localized flooding, affected visitor flows.
Furthermore, the timing of regional events such as the Mid-Autumn Festival and the 2025 Singapore Grand Prix drew high-end VIP players away from Macau’s casinos, per Yogonet.
J.P. Morgan and Citigroup downgraded their October GGR growth projections as a result. According to The Macao News, J.P. Morgan adjusted its forecast to a 3% to 6% increase, down from an earlier expectation of 11%, describing the performance as a “temporary setback.”
Despite this, Macau recorded a daily visitor average of approximately 143,000 during Golden Week, with September’s visitation increasing 10% year-on-year to 2.8 million.
Analysts Forecast Steady Gains Despite Margin Pressures
Deutsche Bank projects that gross gaming revenue will continue to grow in November 2025, anticipating a 10.2% year-on-year increase to around US$2.54 billion. The bank expects fourth-quarter revenue to reach US$8.1 billion, a 12.9% rise over 2024. Full-year projections are similarly positive, with an expected GGR of US$30.8 billion in 2025 and US$32.4 billion in 2026.
However, operators face margin pressures as rising non-gaming costs are outpacing revenue gains, resulting in narrower profit margins, according to data from late 2024 published by Inside Asian Gaming.
J.P. Morgan and Citigroup analysts emphasized that despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for Macau’s gaming sector remains positive, supported by steady visitor growth and favorable macroeconomic conditions such as a strengthening Chinese yuan.
