The Associated Press recently revealed the Multi-State Lottery Association, the group that runs Powerball, originally had different changes in mind for the game than those that debuted in October. Powerball managers initially planned changes that would have led to larger jackpots and provided players with more value. Instead, the group changed the game’s odds in October to build bigger jackpots, making them more difficult to win although smaller cash prizes became easier.
The changes have been delivering huge jackpots, which reset to start at $40 million after someone wins. Ticket sales soared for state lotteries as the jackpot grew to a record $1.6 billion last month.
Texas Lottery Executive Director Gary Grief, chairman of the Multi-State Lottery Association’s Powerball group, said the frenzy over that jackpot proved the association made the right decision. “The litmus test for any game change, regardless of the research that may be conducted in advance, lies in acceptance by the playing public.”
The report, labeled “restricted confidential,” was inadvertently posted publicly on a website for association members and downloaded by the AP. The website since was changed to send visitors to the association’s public site.
The 37-member Multi-State Lottery Association voted for the original plan in September 2014 and planned to roll it out in April 2015. But it shifted to the newer proposal over concern that the original was too complicated. Compared to the current game, the original plan would have given players better odds—1 in 286 million versus 292 million—to win the jackpot, and $1 million prizes –1 in 9.2 million versus 11.7 million.
Under the previous system, the odds were 1 in 175 million for the big jackpot and 1 in 5.2 million for the $1 million prize. Players would have had similar odds of winning $100 and smaller prizes, which would have been multiplied by 2 to 10 times under a key change that would have embedded the “Power Play” option, which currently costs $1 extra, into the $2 base ticket price. For an extra $1, players could have bought a new “Power Plus” feature to enter a second drawing for a $10 million jackpot and smaller prizes. The odds of winning any prize would have been 1 in 15 for “Power Plus” players, compared to 1 in 25 for the current game.
According to a February 2015 report, summarizing extensive polling and focus group testing, the proposed plan was extolled for doubling a player’s odds of winning prizes and adding more life-changing jackpots. The report said most surveyed players preferred the game, caught on quickly and said it made Powerball more winnable, fun and interesting. The research concluded that the “slightly higher perceived complexity should not impact” Powerball’s popularity.
But after the highly promoted Monopoly Millionaires’ Club Jackpot game was dropped by lotteries in 2014 due to poor sales and player confusion, lottery directors worried that the proposed Powerball changes also would be too complex and scare off players.
Grief said ultimately the association voted to increase the number of white balls to 69 from 59 and cut the number of red Powerballs to 26 from 35 to make the Jackpot harder and smaller prizes easier to win. The abandoned plan called for 66 white and 32 red balls. The approved changes increased the third prize level from $10,000 to $50,000, kept a modified “Power Play” for an extra $1 and discarded the “Power Plus” idea.
