A former top bookmaker in the mob identified only as “Carmine” said last week that the figures that the state of Rhode Island has relied on for how much revenue it expects from its sports betting operations are “fraudulent.”
This person, interviewed by GoLocal, was once part of an organized crime bookie ring that Rhode Island State Police broke up in the mid-2000s. GoLocal confirmed his bona fides with law enforcement before running the story.
“It is a game of numbers, and Governor Gina Raimondo can’t get there,” said “Carmine.” The governor, who lobbied the legislature for sports betting, put an anticipated $23.5 a year in new revenue in her budget this year.
By the end of March, nine months into the fiscal year, when the program was supposed to have generated about $16 million, it had actually produced $900,000.
Carmine told GoLocal, “Rhode Island would have to win more than a million a week — never lose a bet to get to their projections. It is not going to happen.”
He scoffed at the Rhode Island Lottery and State Revenue office’s exclamation that the less than expected numbers were due to locals betting for the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
He said the numbers for the state would have been even worse if it had unveiled sports betting earlier last fall. “Rhode Island is lucky to have missed the Red Sox run. All the money would have been on the Sox and Rhode Island would have gotten killed,” he said.
Carmine isn’t the first to criticize the state’s numbers. The American Gaming Association two weeks ago said that the state had misinterpreted the figures it used in arriving at its anticipated revenues.
“Our research presented several possible combinations of tax rates and sports betting availability. Under the scenario closest to what Rhode Island implemented, we estimated that Rhode Island would generate $6.4 million in sports betting gaming tax revenue, $17.1 million less than the state projected,” Caroline Ponseti, the director, media relations, for AGA, told GoLocal.
She added that AGA’s estimates were based on “a full stabilized market (not the first four months of operation), a tax rate of 15 percebt (Rhode Island’s is about 50 percebt) and a legal framework that does not include any ‘unusual restrictions’ (like Rhode Island’s prohibition on in-state college sports bets). All of these factors point to expected 2019 sports betting tax revenue of well below even our modest and reasonable projections.”
Carmine added that the state’s sports betting revenue will decline even more as Massachusetts and Connecticut enter the market.
Meanwhile, the state appears to have put the brakes on launching its sports betting mobile app which, if the experience of other state is any guide, probably would be the most profitable part of sports betting.
Legal Sports Report quoted a “source close to the process” that mobile sports betting would be introduced in the fourth quarter, which could put in peril starting in time for the football season. That could be a minor disaster given that the state is amidst the New England Patriot fan base.
The state’s two casinos, at Twin River Lincoln and Twin River Tiverton, introduced sports betting the day after Thanksgiving. Earlier this year, still buoyed by forecasts of great revenues, lawmakers approved S 37 quickly. It allows the lottery to offer sports betting remotely.
During her signing ceremony last month, the governor remained optimistic. “I think in the long run, the numbers are going to be what we thought, but we got a slower start,” she said. “Maybe we should have known it was going to be slower and forecasted accordingly. I also think the world is changing and actually the money is going to be on the mobile phone.”
Tiverton Casino Hotel is anticipating mobile sports betting, according to spokesman Patti Doyle. “We’re grateful that our customers will have the opportunity to enjoy our sports betting amenity in a new and convenient way,” she said, adding, “In addition to wagering in the Sportsbook Bar & Grill at Twin River in Lincoln, at other terminals throughout the casino floors at both Rhode Island venues, and most recently, at self-service kiosks, our customers can opt to do so from the convenience of a mobile app.”
