Right now, the proposed building of two new mega-casinos in northern New Jersey is looking more and more uncertain and state voters could go either way on the plan in November,.
A new poll shows that state voters are deadlocked on the idea with an equal amount both opposing and in favor of the expansion.
Voters will be asked in November to approve a plan to build two new casinos next to the New York market. Though the referendum does not name specific sites for the casinos, the leading contenders are The Meadowlands Sports Complex and Jersey City.
The Monmouth University poll found voters split evenly on the plan with 48 percent in favor and 48 percent opposed.
Northern New Jersey voters showed more support for the plan while votes in the rest of the state largely oppose it, according to the Associated Press.
“The fate of the casino expansion measure is anyone’s guess,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “The public does not express overwhelming confidence that adding North Jersey casinos will be an economic boon, and there is widespread concern that this would hurt an already precarious Atlantic City.”
To kick off the campaign, proponents held a press conference in North Jersey at the Meadowlands emphasizing that two North Jersey casinos would help the entire state.
“This is the right thing to do for the whole state,” said state Senate President Steve Sweeney. “What this is trying to do is recapture the dollars of residents who won’t go to Atlantic City anymore.”
Jim Kirkos, president of the Meadowlands Regional Chamber of Commerce, pointed out that nearly $200 million a year would be funneled from these casinos to Atlantic City to help it grow its non-gaming offerings.
“We can build and rebuild two great tourism destinations in New Jersey—here and Atlantic City,” said Kirkos. “How great for New Jersey would that be? This is not about north and south. We can have both.”
It’s not going to be easy, acknowledged Democratic Senator Paul Sarlo, who represents the Meadowlands region.
“There will be those who oppose this and who will spend a lot of money to oppose it,” he said. “It will be a campaign. But this is an investment in New Jersey. That’s the most important message we need to get out to voters.”
Opponents of the plan have argued that adding in-state competition to an already depressed Atlantic City casino market would result in more Atlantic City casinos closing.
Echoing that, Fitch ratings released a report—coincidentally on the same day the poll was released—that estimates that four of Atlantic City’s remaining eight casinos would close if the two casino projects in the north were built.
The report said the Trump Taj Mahal, Resorts and the Golden Nugget were the most vulnerable casinos and said Bally’s Atlantic City—owned by Caesars Entertainment—would also be at risk.
The firm said a 25 percent decline in gambling revenue would wipe out the Golden Nugget’s operating income before management fees. It also said a decline of 10 percent in gambling revenue would put the Taj Mahal at risk, while a decline of 20 percent would threaten Resorts, the AP said.
A week earlier, Resorts Casino Hotel president Mark Giannantonio—speaking at a local gaming conference—said three to five of his city’s casinos could close if faced with in-state competition.
The report predicted it would take four years for any new casinos to open, but proponents of the particular projects proposed predict shorter time frames. They include a casino at the Meadowlands sports complex in East Rutherford, where racetrack operator Jeff Gural and Hard Rock International propose a casino, and in Jersey City, where footwear magnate Paul Fireman proposes a casino resort costing up to $5 billion.
The Monmouth University poll of 806 adults conducted from May 23 to 27 found that North Jersey voters approve of casino expansion by a margin of 52 percent to 43 percent, while voters elsewhere in the state are opposed. In central New Jersey, 52 percent are opposed and 45 percent are in favor, and in southern New Jersey, 54 percent are against it while 42 percent favor it.
The poll also found that 59 percent believe expanding casinos to other parts of the state will hurt Atlantic City. Respondents also said that expanding casino gambling to the northern part of the state will bring some economic benefits to the state overall: 12 percent said it will help the state’s economy a great deal, while 42 believe it will help somewhat.
Further complicating matters, Atlantic City’s recent long fight to stave off bankruptcy—which is far from over—has left many politicians feeling that the bad publicity may hurt the referendum’s chances.
The state legislature passed a rescue plan last month which will keep Atlantic City’s municipal government operating throughout the year, but only after a protracted and bitter battle in the statehouse.
Governor Chris Christie has already said he feels the stream of negative headlines has probably doomed the referendum to failure and even proponents of the plan admit they could be facing an uphill battle.
“We were going to have a struggle to start with to get gaming passed, but with all this negativity surrounding it, it’s going to be a much steeper climb now to get it passed, “state Senate President Stephen Sweeney, the architect behind the Atlantic City rescue plan, told reporters. “I really think it’s in trouble.”
Atlantic City Fiscal Plan Savior?
Meanwhile, both Christie and Sweeney have speculated that Atlantic City will not meet a requirement within the rescue plan that was passed at the end of May giving the city 150 days to come up with a fiscal plan to balance its budget and achieve financial stability over five years. If the city does not come up with a plan that meets state approval within that time, the state will move to take over the city’s finances.
The timing—which has the city’s plan due in October—could put the city’s fiscal woes back into the headlines just as the referendum is held.
Christie mocked Atlantic City Mayor Don Guardian—who he has accused of being unable to make the necessary cuts needed—at a recent press conference.
“Where’s his plan?” Christie, said according to NJ.com “He says he’s been prepared to do it. Where is it? It’s Day 145. Where is it? Tick tock, tick tock, tick tock. Where’s the plan, mayor?”
Sweeney added that he’d be “shocked” if the city came up with an acceptable plan.
“Am I hoping and praying they do? Yes,” Sweeney told NJ.com “Will I be shocked if they do? Absolutely. All you can go by is past behavior. Their past behavior is to point a finger and blame others.”
The city’s has to close an approximately $100 million deficit in its budget, but will receive at least $56.3 million in state subsidies in 2017. That leaves a nearly $44 million hole to fill for the 2017 budget.
Guardian told the local Press of Atlantic City, that filling the gap will depend on how much transitional aid the city receives, whether the city can restructure or refinance its bonded debt, and whether an employee buyout program is successful.
Guardian also told the New York Times that the city is “looking under every stone to find ways we can either reduce costs or bring in income.”
“I think it’s going to be a tough journey,” Guardian said, “but I think we’re going to be well-prepared and we’ll have some success.”
Guardian also said he will hold monthly meetings to update residents on the city’s plan.
The Monmouth University poll found that most residents feel that state government should stay out of Atlantic City, and they are divided on whether a potential state takeover would help or hurt Atlantic City residents. According to the poll, 51 percent said the state should not get involved in improving the city’s economy, compared with 42 who support it.
Finally, a bill has been introduced in the state Assembly to allow slot machines at Atlantic City International Airport. The airport is not located in Atlantic City, but rather in nearby Galloway Township.
That means another constitutional amendment—and referendum—would be needed to expand gambling outside of the resort. The bill from Assemblyman Tim Eustace, a Democrat from Bergen County, caught airport officials by surprise and it has not been scheduled for committee hearings.
