With news on Kalshi breaking at a rapid pace in recent months, it may come as a surprise that several other prediction markets stole the spotlight this week.
U.S. Justice Department prosecutors have closed an inquiry into crypto-based prediction market Polymarket, Bloomberg reported. Despite being banned on U.S. soil, Polymarket still handled trading volume in excess of $100 million on the 2024 U.S. presidential election. One unnamed “French whale” made a profit of approximately $85 million on his winning trades on Donald Trump.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trade Commission also completed its probe into Polymarket, according to Bloomberg. Prior to the election, FBI agents conducted a “court-authorized” search of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan’s home last November.
Also this week, PredictIT announced that it reached a new agreement with the CFTC that will allow it to expand operations, including raising limits on positions for individuals. The CFTC issued a no-action letter to PredictIT in 2014 that allowed the New Zealand-based prediction market to offer election betting. Eight years later, the CFTC rescinded the letter, leading to a protracted legal battle. The developments regarding PredictIT prompted leading gaming blogger Steve Ruddock to muse whether Polymarket is “waiting in the wings.”
Besides political markets, Polymarket offers a plethora of event contracts on sports. Perhaps the most burning question ahead of NFL training camp concerns which quarterback will start for the Cleveland Browns in Week 1. As of Thursday afternoon, Joe Flacco held the lead with a 42 percent probability. Former Steelers QB Kenny Pickett ranked second at 34 percent, while rookie Shedeur Sanders trailed the field with a probability of only 7 percent.
Separately, reports surfaced that DraftKings has held discussions with prediction market Railbird Exchange. Regarding the deal speculation, DraftKings said it speaks to many companies in the normal course of business, but it declined comment on any specific negotiations with Railbird.
