WEEKLY FEATURE: Japan Casinos Likely Stuck on 3

In light of public opposition to casinos, Japanese lawmakers are taking a restrained approach to the country’s first integrated resorts, with a limit on the number of IRs, entry fees for residents, and other planned safeguards. While the administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (l.) prefers five casino licenses, the continued opposition probably would limit it to just three.

WEEKLY FEATURE: Japan Casinos Likely Stuck on 3

Biometric checks proposed for residents

As anticipated, it looks like Japan will open its legal casino industry with three integrated resorts and limits on resident patronage that include entry fees and the use of biometric identification technologies.

Some in Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party have pushed for five resorts, but that outcome seems unlikely given widespread public opposition to casinos and scant backing from the Komeito Party, the LDP’s Buddhist-backed coalition partner.

“For Komeito, I think it will be extremely hard to go higher than three,” said Kiyohiko Toyama, head of the Komeito casino panel. “If it goes well we could increase it a bit. Komeito is not saying three should be the limit forever, but let’s try three to start with.”

Public opposition stems from concerns about gambling addiction, though a 2017 report in Fortune magazine said a legal slot-like game called pachinko generates 25 trillion yen (US$235 billion) per year, equivalent to more than 4 percent of Japan’s gross domestic product and more revenue than is generated by Macau, Las Vegas and Singapore combined.

Despite that figure—or maybe because of it—a poll conducted by the Kyodo News Agency found that 65 percent of Japanese surveyed oppose casinos, while only 26.6 percent favor them. There are pockets of support, particularly in cities considered the top candidates to host IRs, including Hokkaido, Osaka, Tomakomai and Kushiro. There have been proposals from private interests to build IRs in Kitahiroshima city and Rusutsu village as well. And according to Asia Gaming Brief, a January poll conducted by the Nagasaki Shimbun found that most people around Nagasaki hope a casino there would boost the local economy.

The Japanese parliament legalized casinos in December 2016 with expectations that the industry would generate billions in yearly revenues and boost tourism and industry. Some analysts estimated a market value of up to $40 billion for a mature industry; other estimates have ranged from $8 billion to $25 billion a year. Enticed by those numbers, many of the world’s leading gaming operators have expressed interest in the jurisdiction, including MGM Resorts International, the Las Vegas Sands Corp., Galaxy Entertainment, Hard Rock International and Melco Resorts & Entertainment. Many have already set up shop in the country, while conceding that a too-stringent regulatory structure might lessen their willingness to invest.

GGRAsia reports that Komeito leaders will push for entrance fees higher than the 2,000 yen ($19) proposed by bureaucrats, Toyama said. But any increase, he added, should be balanced by lower taxes so operators can turn a profit. Other proposed measures include the use of biometrics such as facial and vein recognition for the personal identification of visitors to Japan’s casinos.The checks would target Japanese visitors and foreign residents of Japan, reports the Japan Times. In addition, visits by locals may be limited to three times a week.

The LDP and Komeito are expected to continue the debate about the rules and regulations; they must agree on a bill by the end of March and submit it in the first half of April to pass it in the current session that ends in June.

As the story plays out, an article in the Nation suggested that “gambling-mad Japan” could get “badly burned by legalized casinos,” citing a report that there are now 3.2 million gambling addicts in Japan.