Analysts: Macau Post-Covid Recovery Could Be Complete by 2026
Macau’s post-Covid recovery will continue through 2025 and could be complete by 2026, say analysts.
Casinos in the world’s premier gaming hub saw a 2 percent dip in gross gaming revenue (GGR) last month, to MOP18.2 billion (US$2.27 billion). But it was the only monthly decline since the city reopened for business in Jan. 2023. The drop was widely attributed to a three-day visit from Chinese President Xi Jinping, in town to mark the 25th anniversary of the former Portuguese colony’s return to Chinese rule.
Xi also presided over the inauguration of Macau’s new chief executive, Sam Hou Fai, who succeeded retiring CE Ho Iat-Seng on Dec. 20.
Last year, Macau GGR grew 23.9 percent to MOP226.78 billion, more than the official target of MOP216 billion, and almost 80 percent of the MOP292.5 billion achieved in 2019. Jeffries analyst David Katz says the industry could return to pre-Covid levels by next year. As reported by financial website Seeking Alpha, Katz says the special administrative region will benefit from “monetary policy initiatives focused on improving the health of the overall consumer” in Macau.
Another positive indicator is increasing tourism. Macau International Airport (MIA) has announced that airport passenger capacity exceeded 7.64 million in 2024, up 48 percent year-on-year. The city expects 35 million visitors in 2025, up by 25 percent over last year.
Mass gaming is also expected to grow. This year’s official GGR target is MOP240 billion, per the Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ).
According to the Macau Daily Times, Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau project a 7 percent increase in GGR year-over-year, for a total of MOP244 billion. More smart tables “will also allow casinos to better understand the true value of their players through detailed data collection on their gaming behaviors” they added.
Philippine Lawmakers Want Anti-POGO Law
Last July, in his third State of the Nation address, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. banned crime-ridden Philippine Offshore Gaming Operations (POGOs). Marcos ordered operations to cease immediately and wind down fully by year’s end. He also enshrined the ban in Executive Order 74, issued Nov. 8, to prevent POGOs from returning to the country.
But concerned lawmakers say the order isn’t enough to keep the industry from making a comeback. For example, about 11,000 foreign POGO workers are still living in the Philippines, in defiance of government orders to leave the country by Dec. 31.
Moreover, since the ban, law enforcement has continued to uncover pockets of POGO activity. Last October, one stealth operation was found in Pasay City, in sight of the Senate office building where an official POGO probe was underway.
On Jan. 2, Sen. Risa Hontiveros, who spearheaded the investigation, issued a statement saying, “I hope the year 2025 is the year we finally pass the Anti-POGO Act. We need a comprehensive law to ensure that there will no longer be POGOs that scam, hurt and deceive people.” She noted that EO 74 only prohibits POGO licensed by PAGCOR, the state-run regulator—which she perceives as a gaping loophole.
Sen. Sherwin Gatchalian agrees. He told Channel News Asia that proposed new legislation “expands the definition to make sure that … regardless of who issued the license, (it) will be captured in the law.”
Largely run by Chinese interests, POGOs allegedly conducted online scams, took part in money laundering, and engaged in kidnapping, human trafficking and torture, among other crimes. The proposed anti-POGO legislation would work in part by addressing immigration checks, foreign interference and espionage, CNA reported.
POGOs are now masquerading as other legitimate business entities, infiltrating the hotel and restaurant industry, and posing as business process outsourcing (BPO) entities, Gatchalian stated in a Jan. 7 news release. “More than ever,” he said, “we need to sustain our efforts to clear out all criminal syndicates that are products of POGOs.”
Resorts World Genting Debuts New Casino
There’s a new gaming floor at Resorts World Genting (RWG), the flagship property of Malaysian gaming giant Genting Berhad.
But the new floor, with 36 live gaming tables, low-volatility slots and a selection of EGMs, may not be meaningful when it comes to revenue. Maybank analyst Samuel Yin Shao Yang, who visited RWG’s Genting Casino on Dec. 30, said the new Genting Casino “does not compel us to revise our earnings estimates upwards.”
Last February, RWG closed its Hollywood and Circus Palace casinos without notice, leaving only the newer SkyCasino open to players. Genting Casino will do little to take up the slack, suggests the New Straits Times. At fewer than 20,000 square feet, it adds less than 10 percent of the capacity of the two shuttered casinos.
As a result, following Genting Malaysia’s third-quarter 2024 results, Maybank trimmed its long-term mass-market gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast by 25 percent , from RM3.1 billion (US$6.882 million) to RM2.85 billion.
Despite the uncertainty, Maybank “continues to believe that Genting Malaysia’s valuations are attractive” and maintains its “buy” rating.
RWG opened in 1965, and is Malaysia’s only licensed casino resort. It is located in Genting Highlands, a mountainous region outside the capital of Kuala Lumpur.
Philippine Resort and Casino Ordered to Close
Officials in the Philippines’ Clark Freeport Zone have ordered a 130-acre leisure park and casino to close, citing unpaid bills totaling PHP203 million (US$3.473 million).
On Jan. 6, Clark Development Corp. (CDC) issued a cease-and-desist order against Fontana Development Corp. and Fontana Resort and Country Club. The order directed the entities “to immediately stop all operations indefinitely within their leased area … pending compliance with their contractual obligations,” said Astrud Aguinaldo, CDC communications division manager.
The CDC claims Fontana has repeatedly breached the rules, failing to obtain approval for construction activities and failing to comply with building codes. According to the Philippine Inquirer, in 2016, it shut down after allegedly running an illegal gaming operation. In 2020, authorities found an unlicensed Covid facility running inside one of Fontana’s villas.
Lio Chi Chong Named Interim Director of Macau DICJ
Lio Chi Chong, deputy director of the Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), will serve as acting director for a one-year term. He succeeds Adriano Ho, recently appointed customs commissioner under new chief executive Sam Hou Fai.
According to Macau Business, Lio first joined the DICJ in August 2020 as a senior technician and became deputy director in February 2021. He was previously an investigator with the Judiciary Police and a supervisor at the Office for Personal Data Protection.
Other members of the new administration are Secretary for Social Affairs and Culture O Lam, Secretary for Economy and Finance Tai Kin Ip, Secretary for Transport and Works Tam Wai Man, Director of the Commission of Audit Ao Leong U, and Commissioner against Corruption Ao Leong Sheong.
