A coalition of California’s gaming tribes and racetracks say they have gathered enough signatures, more than 1.4 million, to qualify a sports betting measure for the 2022 ballot. They only need to have 997,000 to qualify a referendum.
They made the announcement last week on Twitter.
Some argue that legalizing sports betting could help put a dent in the state’s gargantuan $54 billion debt caused by the ravages of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The pandemic initially delayed and almost derailed the 20 tribes’ efforts, which began about a year ago. However a state judge extended the deadline by 90 days during the summer.
The group’s spokesman Jacob Mejia, vice president of public affairs for the Pechanga Band of Luiseño Indians, declared that “more than 1.4 million Californians signed the petition, reflecting strong support to allow sports wagering in a responsible manner as set forth in the initiative.” He added that the initiative “will regulate sports wagering and generate new revenues for public safety, mental health programs, and more, while giving Californians the opportunity to participate in this activity.”
He speculated that the measure could end up on next year’s ballot if the legislature takes action to put it up earlier than state law says.
Some analysts estimate that the Golden State could generate over $1.4 billion in sportsbook bets the first year and double the following year if mobile and retail operators are combined. However, since the tribes’ initiative offers only brick and mortar sportsbook, that figure could be considerably smaller.
Deutsche Bank gaming analyst Carlo Santarelli wrote: “In a retail-only market, we believe state gaming revenue forecasts would likely need to be reduced by anywhere from 30-50%, if not more.”
The tribes’ antipathy towards the state’s 72 card clubs is contained within the provision that locks them out from participating in sports betting.
Another provision that is controversial prohibits betting on college or university games.
Santarelli sees the lack of mobile wagering as a “clear flaw,” adding, “We see the initiative, in its current form, as a net negative.”
He noted that there is a divide between tribal leaders on mobile sports betting, with some wanting it and others worried that it could eat into patronage at their physical casinos.
California lawmakers earlier in 2020 revived a previous bill that would have legalized sports betting but also allowed participation by cardrooms, racetracks and both mobile and retail sales.
They gave up their efforts in June. Of course, those earlier efforts started when the state was projecting a $5.6 billion surplus.
That bill was carried by Senator Bill Dodd and Representative Adam Gray. At the time Dodd declared, “We have a duty to bring illegal sports wagering out of the shadows and support our communities with the revenue,” said state Sen. Bill Dodd. “We can’t afford inaction.”
Dodd and his allies can’t help but notice that other states that have legalized sports betting are making significant tax revenues, the most prominent being New Jersey.
Opponents point to states that haven’t been as successful, and argue that the regulatory costs of sports betting would wipe out any potential profits to the state.
