As Japan’s capital and largest and wealthiest city, Tokyo naturally would be showplace of the destination gaming industry envisioned for the second-largest economy in Asia.
Yet, it may not happen, according to a new report in English-language daily the Japan Times.
The governing Liberal Democratic Party is working to legalize casinos, and Tokyo is considered the ideal place for them because of its ease of access to foreign tourists and the relative affluence of its residents. Ideally, at least one would open there in time for the 2020 Summer Olympics.
In fact, it was former Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara who first proposed legalizing casinos back in 1999. His successor, Naoki Inose, was a fan as well. But not Inose’s successor, Yoichi Masuzoe, who assumed the post in February. Asahi Shimbun has characterized Masuzoe’s approach to the industry as “cautious,” which is probably generous because he seems pretty determined to keep it out of the capital.
Earlier this year, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government leased a large tract of public land on the waterfront to BMW for a test-drive course and showroom, land that had previously been set aside for an integrated resort that included a casino. When the metropolitan government was reorganized in July, the division that was nominally in charge of the casino plan was practically made irrelevant.
In an appearance last month on a Fuji TV talk show, the governor talked about not wanting casinos in Tokyo. Members of the press duly noted the choice of medium, since Fuji TV, in collaboration with Mitsui Real Estate and Kashima Construction, had submitted a casino resort plan last September to the committee of the National Diet in charge of special economic zones, one of the pillars of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic recovery plan.
Analysts believe an industry based on casinos in Tokyo and Osaka and possibly two or three regional destinations could generate US$10 billion-$15 billion in gaming revenue out of the gate, with Tokyo the preferred choice for overseas investors—“uniquely” situated, says Takayoshi Koike of Capital & Innovation, which is working with foreign operators and Japanese companies interested in investing.
Koike predicts that Japanese casinos could rake in between ¥1.2 trillion and ¥2.2 trillion a year ($11 billion-$22 billion) based on existing legal markets in pachinko, pari-mutuel racing and lotteries, Japan’s GDP and the amount of assets held by individuals. As long as the government regulates the industry so as to not oversaturate individual markets, operators will be assured of high, permanent returns, he says. However, Tokyo is more assured than other locations because it is a major world capital whose residents are better off on average than the rest of the country. Tokyo doesn’t even need foreigners, Koike implies, even though attracting tourists is one of the central government’s main justifications for legalization.
Not that there aren’t plenty of other takers. Osaka is eager to host a casino, and Hokkaido, Okinawa and Nagasaki have expressed keen interest in using gaming to revitalize their economies.
Financial media have generally been in favor as well, but the mainstream press is leaning toward the “caution” that Masuzoe has demonstrated. Asahi Shimbun ran a long article several months ago about the social problems that have followed the adoption of casino gambling in Singapore and other Asian countries, and Tokyo Shimbun says there are too many uncertainties surrounding the industry to legalize it so quickly. A recent Asahi article noted that the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare estimates that more than 5 million Japanese suffer from gambling addictions already, and when the casino legalization bill is debated in the Diet this fall, the ministry wants it to include a provision to render the industry off-limits to Japanese, the same way South Korea and Vietnam exclude their nationals.
The National Police Agency is also opposed, ostensibly over concerns about social impacts and the possible infiltration of organized crime.
