Could U.S.-China Tensions Affect Macau Concessions?

A report from risk consultancy Steve Vickers Associates says the volatile relationship between the governments of Washington and Beijing could have a negative impact on U.S. gaming companies in Macau. Some observers are wondering whether a mysterious visit by Steve Wynn to Beijing concerned license renewals or Chinese dissident Guo Wengui (l.).

Could U.S.-China Tensions Affect Macau Concessions?

Wynn’s Beijing visit generates speculation

There’s good news and bad news for the world’s top gaming town, according to risk consultancy Steve Vickers Associates. In its Asia Risk Assessment for 2018, Vickers says the political climate and economy are stable and the casino industry should continue to flourish.

The risks include the possibility of a terrorist strike on a casino; two violent attacks in 2017 showed that casinos are soft targets that may be easily attacked. The June siege by a gunman at Resorts World Manila in the Philippines killed more than 30 people, most of whom died after he set fire to a gaming floor. In October, a mass shooting at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas killed 59 people and injured hundreds more.

“Macau’s close ties to Mainland China should ensure security,” the report said. “However, large casinos remain vulnerable to terrorist attack despite recent efforts to improve readiness, and the general difficulty of securing firearms and explosives in Macau.”

Vickers also expressed concern about the ongoing involvement in gaming of “triad societies and organized crime,” which it said “shows no sign of diminishing—rather, it is institutionalized.”

The 2018 assessment also said Beijing’s efforts to curb corruption and control capital outflows—which led to the gaming industry’s historic decline from 2014 to 2016—could lead to instability, along with uncertainty about upcoming gaming concession renewals in 2020 and 2022. The latter could be a special concern for U.S.-based gaming operators including MGM China, Wynn Resorts Macau and Sands China.

“Each applicant must submit to a formal tender, meaning American companies’ interests may possibly become hostage to volatile Sino-U.S. relations,” the Vickers report said.

Last year Macau Chief Executive Chui Sai On revealed that a review of the casino industry will be completed ahead of the licensing renewal process. Chui said the changes “will perfect the laws and regulations governing the gaming industry.”

Meanwhile, a recent visit to Beijing by billionaire casino magnate Steve Wynn, reported by Macau Business, has some industry observers wondering if he’s trying to learn more about the renewal of his concession in Macau.

“More than 60 percent of net revenues at Mr. Wynn’s company are generated by the MSAR,” according to the publication. “The speculation builds up with the touchdown of Steve Wynn’s private plane in Beijing under a heavy cloak of silence following the much-exposed Guo Wengui story published by the Wall Street Journal.”

That story, which appeared in the Journal last October, alleged that Wynn, finance chairman of the Republican National Committee, hand-delivered a letter to President Donald Trump from the Chinese government demanding the dissident’s deportation.

Wynn Resorts denied the story, which the Journal called “worthy of a spy thriller.” In December the U.S. Justice Department said it would not extradite Guo, a Chinese billionaire who fled to the U.S. in 2014.

“So why is Steve Wynn in Beijing?” asked Macau Business. So far, there’s been no comment from Wynn Resorts.