Regional gaming revenues continue to decline and are taking casino stocks down with them.
As of this writing, the following operators are well off their 52-week highs:
Boyd 38 percent
Penn National 28
Caesars 26
Pinnacle 22
Isle of Capri 17
Monarch 14
MTR Gaming 14
Those losses have been much greater than the Macau-Las Vegas-centric operators
MGM Resorts 12 percent
Las Vegas Sands 10
Wynn 9
Gaming suppliers also have been hit hard:
IGT 31 percent
Scientific Games 27
Multimedia Games 18
Bally 13
The reasons for the declines among regional casino operators is simple: revenues are down and below expectations.
There are some exceptions. Boyd and Caesars are giving back some of the spike that occurred when investors got excited prematurely about the launch of internet gaming in New Jersey.
MTR Gaming has a floor under it based on its pending merger with Eldorado Resorts.
But, by and large, both casino operators and their suppliers are down because revenues are down.
December was especially damaging to the mindset of investors.
Gaming revenues fell by 7.4 percent after rising in four of the previous five months, including a 7.9 percent blockbuster in November. It was the worst year-over-year comparison since October 2011.
Many of the reasons were obvious and well known—severe weather, one less weekend date than in 2012, a New Year’s falling mid-week, thus cutting the benefits of the historically biggest holiday of the year.
And we can’t forget the late Thanksgiving gave shoppers 25 fewer days before Christmas, meaning that consumers didn’t have time to go to casinos. They had to shop.
After all, you can always go to a casino next week or next month. But with Christmas staring you in the face, you better get out there and buy that sweater for Dad, iPhone for Junior, that pearl necklace for the most important person in your life.
Further, most employed people, by definition a casino’s best customers, must shop at nights and on weekends, which also happen to be the otherwise prime times to visit casinos.
Some evidence for this comes from Midwestern states that charge admission to casinos, thus allowing for a spend-per-visit calculation.
In Illinois, December admissions fell 16.8 percent below the previous year, yet win-per-admission rose 4.9 percent.
Missouri casinos experienced the same trend. Admissions fell 15.8 percent, while win-per-admission rose 4.7 percent.
Ditto Iowa. There, racino admissions fell 13.5 percent but win-per-patron rose 7.7 percent. Casino admissions dropped10.3 percent, yet win-per-patron increased 3.1 percent.
Now, some of the improved win-per-admission came from casino managers focusing on their best players as they try to cut marketing costs.
But it also shows that customers were spending.
Another way to look at it is changes in total revenue vs. total admissions.
State Revenue change Admissions change
Illinois -13.2 percent -16.8
Iowa racinos -7.5 -13.5
Iowa casinos -7.9 -10.5
Missouri -11.0 -15.8
Other, non-gaming data suggest something of a consumer slow down in December, though numbers are mixed.
January wasn’t much help with one of the coldest and snowiest months in many years throughout much of the country.
Penn National’s Boomtown Casino in Biloxi even closed briefly because of ice. When Mississippi Gulf Coast properties close because of the weather, you know it’s a tough winter.
Of course, weather will normalize. Then the question becomes whether gaming revenues normalize, too.
Our guess is that they will, assuming the slowly improving economy continues to improve, though in its maddening fits and starts way.
If that happens, some of the regional casino stocks will prove to be good buys at today’s prices.
