Global operators will line up
The possibility that Japanese lawmakers will approve a casino gaming bill before the end of 2016 are “quite low,” despite an extraordinary session of parliament that lasts until the end of the month, says investment bank Morgan Stanley.
In a note last week, the bank said an enabling bill to legalize casino resorts in the country may not pass in the current session in spite of support from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party headed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
“First, the current session which ends in November does not leave much time for it to pass in both houses, although it is possible that the session may be extended for two to three weeks in December,” Morgan Stanley wrote. “Second, after the LDP pushed through the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement without consensus, it is unlikely to do this with the casino integrated resorts bill.
“Finally, uncertainty following the U.S. presidential election could divert attention away from the bill,” the bank concluded.
The recent appointment of casino supporter Toshihiro Nikai as secretary general of the LDP was seen as a good omen for the country’s long-deferred integrated resort bill.
“Integrated resorts are an extremely effective tool when soliciting private investment for making exhibition sites and other such facilities,” said Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Koichi Hagiuda said at a recent press conference.
The bill was first submitted to the Diet, or Japanese parliament, in December 2013. It stalled in November 2014 when the House of Representatives was dissolved and resubmitted in April 2015. It has been held up due to opposition from Buddhist leaders in alliance with the Komeito, the LDP’s ruling coalition partner. Both are concerned about the possibility that gambling addiction and crime will rise if casinos are legalized.
Global operators are eager to see the bill go forward at last. Daniel Cheng, senior vice president of business development for Hard Rock International, said earlier this year that the U.S.-based company still has high hopes for Japan. “Japan is the next Macau,” he said. Others who have expressed interest in Japan include Sheldon Adelson, chairman and CEO of the Las Vegas Sands Corp., and James Murren, CEO of MGM Resorts International. Genting Singapore has also said it is “optimistic” that the casino enabling bill in Japan would “be enacted in the near future.”
“When this happens, significant resources will need to be devoted to position the group as a strong candidate for the bidding process,” the firm has said.
Morgan estimates a casino market in Japan valued “in the range of US$7 billion to US$20 billion.”
