More stalling could dampen investment
Japan’s on-again, off-again enthusiasm for legal casinos is on again.
According to multiple reports, the country’s Diet, or parliament, will take up consideration of the Integrated Resorts Promotion Bill, promoted by lawmakers across parties as well as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. In a multi-tiered process, follow-up legislation would then be needed to create a regulatory structure, the Financial Times reports.
An extraordinary session of the Diet is due to start in late September and run until late November, in which the measure may be on the agenda. So far, Shinzo’s support for the plan has not persuaded his political allies in the Buddhist-influenced party Komeito.
Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, chairman and CEO of the Las Vegas Sands Corp., expressed interest in the outcome at the opening of his glitzy new Parisian Macao resort. “I’m told that this fall the Diet may reintroduce the question of legalizing gaming, and if they do, we will certainly be there as a candidate,” Adelson promised. “And we have incredible iconic buildings to build.”
Union Gaming Securities Asia Ltd said if the legislation finally moves forward, lawmakers may proceed cautiously and only put two licenses on the table. Union Gaming said the front-running locations include Tokyo and Osaka. Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike has already come out in support of the plan.
The Times reports that the casino industry in Japan could be worth as much as $40 billion per year. Though it’s tempting, analyst Jay Defibaugh of CLSA said there’s a “less than 50 percent chance that the first stage integrated resorts promotion bill will be passed during the extraordinary Diet session.” And if the bill is deferred again, say analysts, it could be forgotten amid plans for the 2020 Olympics.
“It is kind of a last chance to have this discussion for a while,” said Takashi Kiso, CEO of the Tokyo-based International Casino Institute. “Even though Mr. Abe is pro-casino, he is going to start discussing constitutional change and that debate could last forever.”
If the bill does not pass after a full 10 years of lobbying, global casino brands such as Las Vegas Sands, Wynn, Genting and MGM could “reconsider their commitment” to Japan as the next big thing, he said.
