Japan? Maybe Never

A lack of broad support combined with Shinzo Abe’s (l.) political woes has spelled doom for casinos in Japan. Legalization has been shelved, and isn’t expected to be revived any time soon, dashing government and gaming industry hopes for a market with a potential to be the second largest in the world.

Japanese lawmakers are believed to have indefinitely postponed action on a bill legalizing casinos as advocated by members of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s governing Liberal Democratic Party and the prime minister himself.

Abe, whose cabinet has been hit by a series of scandals, “lacks the political leverage to pass the bill this year,” sources directly involved in the process said.

Abe had promoted destination-scale casinos as a plank in his economic growth program, which has sputtered as well, and the shelving of the bill is seen as a blow to his prestige, not to mention a major disappointment for most of the world largest gaming operators, which were prepared to invest billions in a market many analysts see as potentially the second-biggest in the world after Macau.

The postponement also ends any chance for casinos to open in time for the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo, as operators had hoped.

Advocates within the National Diet say they aim to keep the bill on the table, but insiders contend there is a considerable chance it will not come up for discussion even in 2015. Bills of higher-priority, including those related to national defense, are likely to take up debate time in the next parliament session, they say.

Casinos are a politically and socially sensitive issue in Japan, and despite Abe’s support, the bill failed to overcome opposition from within the LDP and from leaders of the party’s junior coalition partner, Buddhist-backed Komeito.

The biggest setback for the pro-casino camp came in September when two cabinet ministers quit over alleged improprieties related to campaign funding-related misdeeds.

The “leadership” lacked political support, as one source put it.