On May 6, voters in England, Scotland and Wales went to the polls to decide a variety of issues. The U.K. allows bettors to wager on the outcomes and bookmakers decide the odds.
Patrick Flynn of Smarkets said Conservatives surged to an all-time high price of 83 percent to take the Hartlepool seat from Labour, following the publication of a constituency poll that gave the Conservatives a 17-point lead. Other markets show a Conservative lead around 7 percent.
In London, Sadiq Khan expects reelection, with his chances at 98 percent with over £7.5 million traded, a market beaten only by the U.S. presidential election in November, according to SBC News.
Smarkets project Conservative candidate Shaun Bailey with a 98 percent chance of finishing second, with the Liberal Democrats’ Luisa Porritt and Siân Berry of the Greens both at a 49 percent possibility to finish in third place.
Conservative incumbents are both at record-high chances to win re-election in the Tees Valley and West Midlands, with Ben Houchen and Andy Street last trading at 91 percent and 93 percent, respectively.
“I think it’s completely plausible that come the next general election, the “time for a change” message after 14 years of Tory led government could be quite powerful,” said Matt Shaddick, head of politics for Ladbrokes.
Sam Rosbottom, of Betfair said “the SNP’s race to a majority is very tight and odds-on that they fall short of the required 65 seats. The SNP are 5/6 to fail to win a majority while getting to 65 seats or more is 11/10.
An independence referendum is 9/4 to take place in 2022, while 2023 is 9/2 and 2024 11/2.
“At 8/11, voting to stay a part of the United Kingdom is the most likely outcome in the next Scottish independence referendum, while leaving is Evens,” Rosbottom said.
Joe Lee, of Paddy Power, said Prime Minister Boris Johnson can only go up. He bottomed out at an approval rating of 34 percent in last fall. He also made the right moves when it came to the pandemic. The vaccine roll out success in the U.K. compared to other European nations played out to his benefit.
