WEEKLY FEATURE: Could Abe Scandal Derail Japan IRs?

Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (l.) has ambitious plan for casino gaming in the country. But his vision has never won much support among the populace and could suffer even more in light of a shady land deal linked to Abe and his wife. Should he go down, casinos might go with him.

WEEKLY FEATURE: Could Abe Scandal Derail Japan IRs?

Finance Minister pressed to resign

The disclosure of a questionable land sale involving Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his wife could have ongoing repercussions for the lawmaker’s political agenda—including his still-controversial plan to introduce casino gaming in the country.

According to the Japan Times, last week Japan’s Finance Ministry admitted to heavily redacting 14 documents related to the sale of state land to nationalist school operator Moritomo Gakuen. The names of Abe and his wife were deleted in the documents shortly after the land sale was announced. The ministry is suspected of giving the buyer an 86 percent discount on the land because of strong ties between Akie Abe, who was named honorary principal of the planned school, and Yasunori Kagoike, the head of Moritomo Gakuen at the time.

In one passage in the documents, which dates back to April 2016, Akie Abe was quoted as telling Kagoike, “This is a good land plot” and advising him to “please promote” a plan to build an elementary school, according to an 80-page report the ministry submitted to the Diet on March 12.

Last summer, the Osaka District Public Prosecutor’s Office indicted Kagoike and his wife, Junko, on charges they defrauding the local government of some 120 million yen (US$1.1 million) in subsidies for two kindergartens and perpetrated another fraud related to the establishment of a Moritomo Gakuen elementary school. To obtain the subsidies, the couple allegedly made false reports about the schools including the number of full-time teachers and the need for support for children with disabilities.

Abe told reporters he feels “deeply responsible” for the redaction incident, and acknowledged it may cause a loss of public trust. Whole offering his “deepest apology,” Abe denied any involvement in the ministry’s 2016 decision to sell the land in Toyonaka.

His apology may not be enough. Opposition lawmakers are calling for the ouster of Finance Minister Taro Aso, and promised to boycott Upper House sessions on government-sponsored bills linked to the budget if he does not step down. Aso is also the deputy prime minister, and if he is forced to resign, the Times reported, “It would deal a massive blow to the cabinet and considerably weaken Abe’s grip on power.”

Aso called the document-tampering an “extremely egregious” problem and offered his “deep apologies.” But he gave no indication he would resign, and instead said, “It is regrettable that an action by some people in the bureau has damaged the reputation of the Finance Ministry as a whole. But I don’t think the problem is organizational.”

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga also rejected calls for Aso’s resignation, saying he should instead “lead the ministry’s effort to thoroughly investigate” the scandal.

Others are not so forgiving. “It has become clear that Abe’s cabinet has lied,” said Renho Murata, a leading member of the Upper House. “This is an insult to democracy.”

“Even if Aso resigns to take the blame, that won’t be enough for the public,” a member of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan told the Kyodo News Agency. “The Abe cabinet should resign en masse.”

Takuji Okubo, chief economist at Japan Macro Advisors, told Bloomberg News that Abe “may stay on as a kingmaker, but a fresh face at the top seat of the government will likely bring substantial changes to the policy mix in Japan.

The uproar may have no serious impact on the pending IR Implementation Bill—but then again, it may. Asia Gaming Brief contends it could even spell the end of Abe and his administration. “While it still seems highly likely that the bill will be passed in the current Diet session,” said the AGB account, “the possibility that scandal could suddenly bring down the Abe government can no longer be entirely discounted.”

A source told the Financial Times that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party wants five or six casino licenses, while its Buddhist-influenced coalition party, the Komeito, wants to limit the number to two or three.

In the midst of the scandal, the LDP hopes to get the IR bill to parliament so it can pass before the end of the legislative session on June 20, reported Casino.org. If that happens, the first integrated resorts could be up and running before 2025.